Sunday, September 28, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 4 ProLine Sunday Update

Our Trifecta this week is New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta. The Saints (our lock) stays the same at -3 over Dallas, making this a great game to add to parlay tickets. The Bears slide from +2 to +1.5 against the Packers, but we have Chicago outright anyway.

The killer here is Atlanta moving from -3 to -3.5 on the road in Minnesota. The Falcons travel like unrefrigerated milk, and the Vikings are not only starting Teddy Bridgewater, but have had a couple weeks to regroup and figure out life without ADP. If you wanted to bail on this game with it off the field goal, I'd understand.

Other movers of note:

* Detroit is all the way to -3 from -1.5 over the Jets. That's a little high on the road.
* Pittsburgh has climbed to -9 from -7.5 over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers can't be as bad as they were last week, can they? Still, even having Doug Martin back won't mean much.

Good luck this week!

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Four, 2014

Welcome to Week Four of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where it's nice to know while people starve, Corona is building giant mirrors to banish shade from patios.

Last week was an acceptable 9-7 against the spread and straight up, but once again we blew the Lock of the Week. It's tough to figure how Carolina went so far south in one week, but the simplest answers might be that Cam Newton is more banged up than we know and not having Greg Hardy affects the Panther D mightily.

There's an excellent piece at Grantland this week by Andrew Sharp about Eagles DB Cary Williams, who called out the Philly coaching staff for practicing them too hard. Williams, who as of yet has not had his words turned into a rap anthem by DJ Steve Porter, may have a point, as he has been apparently been backed up anonymously by other Eagles. Check out that piece.

Our cash outlay will change as the byes start this week. The Lock of the Week will jump from $300 to $500 to keep the bets at an even $2K per week. So, yeah, there's me throwing another $200 in the crapper. Wasn't I just bitching about Corona?

As always, remember: these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as being stranded on an island with John Rocker.

Miami (-3.5) at OAKLAND (40.5): A three-hour sonogram of Pippa's belly might be more entertaining than this. Dolphins 23, Raiders 17.
Green Bay (-2) at CHICAGO (51.5): The Packers offense may be a shambles, but I can say nothing bad about Aaron Rodgers as long as he is getting Hans and Franz work. Bears 26, Packers 23.
Buffalo (+3) at HOUSTON (41): Speaking of State Farm commercials, apparently a second commercial featuring Rob Schneider as the "Makin' Copies" guy has been pulled because he is a serious anti-vaccination guy. I guess I understand that, but would anyone actually make decisions about their children's health based on what Deuce Bigalow recommends? Texans 22, Bills 20.
Tennessee (+8) at INDIANAPOLIS (46): We're getting closer and closer to Clipboard Jesus taking the field. Can I get an AMEN! Colts 30, Titans 17.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at PITTSBURGH (45): This only looks like a total mismatch because it is. Steelers 31, Buccaneers 20.
Jacksonville (+13) at SAN DIEGO (45): The Chargers are missing a large number of players due to injury. Fortunately for them, Jacksonville is missing an entire franchise. Chargers 34, Jaguars 16.
Atlanta (-3) at MINNESOTA (47): The Falcons travel about as well as the French army, but I like this at least as a push. Falcons 24, Vikings 16.
Philadelphia (+4.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (50.5): The Eagles are the worst 3-0 team in history, while the 49ers have to figure out second halves at some point. Still, more than a field goal ... 49ers 26, Eagles 24.
Carolina (+3.5) at BALTIMORE (40.5): Is it possible, given everything that's happened this year, that the Ravens could overtake Washington as the NFL's most hated franchise? Has that already happened? Ravens 22, Panthers 20.
Detroit (-1.5) at NEW YORK JETS (44): I had a nice conversation with a diehard Jets fan this week. In Canada. So there may be a Santa Claus after all. Lions 23, Jets 17.
New Orleans (-3) at DALLAS (53): Because there will efinitely be none on isplay in allas, I have compose this sentence with no "." Saints 31, Cowboys 24.
New England (-4) at KANSAS CITY (45): Beat writers for the Patriots are speculating Tom Brady has some sort of lower-leg injury that is keeping him from pushing off into his throws. It's his own damned fault -- those Ugh boots just offer no support. Patriots 24, Chiefs 21.

Lock of the Week: New Orleans
Trifecta: New Orleans, Chicago, Atlanta

2014 Week Three

Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
ATS: 9-7
SU: 9-7
Total $: -$270

2014 Season Totals

Lock of the Week: 0-3
Trifecta: 0-3
ATS: 24-22-2
SU: 24-24
Total $: -$1,320

Thursday, September 25, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 4, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

New York Giants (+3.5) at WASHINGTON (46): Oh, if only the Giants could play a Ryan Fitzpatrick-helmed team every week. The man is good for what ails you.

Trent Dilfer's theory on how Fitzpatrick keeps landing starting jobs is a good one -- he's a placeholder quarterback who knows he'll be replaced before long by a young buck, and he has a track record of starting fast and tailing off. Dilfer says because Fitzpatrick is so smart, he wins games on brains, but team catch up and eventually his head writes cheques his talent can't cash. Pretty brilliant.

I think there has to be a bit of a slowdown for Kirk Cousins, even though he's clearly the better QB for the team recently destroyed by South Park. On the other side, I think Eli and Rashard Jennings are just heating up. Still, given Washington's at home, I think this one stays pretty tight.

Giants 26, Redskins 23.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Football Hoser's 2014 Week 3 ProLine Sunday Update

Just a quickie today:

My Lock of the Week, Carolina, stays at -3.5. In the Trifecta, Cincinnati stays at -7 and is a solid play for parlay tickets, but Indianapolis picks up the dreaded half-point to move to -7.5. I'm still giving the points, but it's a little scarier now.

Other moves to note:

* BUFFALO gains a full point, but it's below a field goal over San Diego, so not a big deal.
* ST. LOUIS goes from -1 to -3 over Dallas, which is nuts. Still good for parlays, but a two-point difference is very unusual.
* PHILADELPHIA moves on to the number at -7 against Washington. Again, not nearly as strong as it was at -6.5, but I'm taking the Racists and the points, so good for me.
* NEW ORLEANS also gains a full point to -11 against the Vikings, but that shouldn't affect anyone in this game.
* BALTIMORE goes from -1.5 to -2.5 against the Browns.
* DETROIT only gets -1.5 instead of -2.5 over Green Bay.
* NEW ENGLAND goes to above two touchdowns at -14.5 against Oakland. Still seems safe, but ...
* The JETS lose a point and a half to the Bears, now only a -1.5 favourite.

Good luck today!

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week Three, 2014

Welcome to Week Three of the 2014 edition of the Football Hoser's NFL picks, where I'm wondering who thought Iggy Azalea and J-Lo rubbing ass would be hot. That seems like a good way to catch something.

I heard someone on the radio today perfectly describe what I did in Week Two, and that was overreact. All of us (well, not the people winning money) tend to put too much stock in the games we've just watched rather than consider the long view of a team. That's doubly difficult to avoid early in the season, when we're all feeling our way.

Having said that, congratulations to Tampa Bay for Thursday night putting on the single sorriest excuse for an NFL game I have ever seen, which we saw coming. We got it straight up and against the spread, and the Buccaneers got it every which way including loose.

Remember, these picks are for fun. Using these picks to make actual bets is as advisable as hanging out in a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee frat house.

Denver (+5) at SEATTLE (48.5): Think the Seahawks might be a little bit pissed off this week? I bet Pete Carroll even made his staff drink McDonald's coffee. Seahawks 27, Broncos 21.
Kansas City (+4) at MIAMI (42): There's a pretty good chance you'll see Larry Czonka in the Dolphin backfield this week. Still, with Jamaal Charles iffy ... Dolphins 22, Chiefs 20.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at CAROLINA (41.5): In essence, this line says Vegas thinks the Steelers would be even with the Panthers at a neutral site. Uhhhh huh. Panthers 27, Steelers 16.
Chicago (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (45.5): When the Jets blow a lead like they did last week, it must be comforting to fans to be able to say, "Well, it least it wasn't the Buttfumble." Bears 23, Jets 20.
Indianapolis (-7) at JACKSONVILLE (45.5): This'll be uglier than John Goodman in a thong. Colts 34, Jaguars 16.
Oakland (+14) at NEW ENGLAND (46.5): The belief here must be that the Patriots will win 46.5-0. Patriots 31, Raiders 10.
San Francisco (-3) at ARIZONA (42): It looks like Carson Palmer is out again this week, and who would've thought that might be the difference between these two teams? 49ers 26, Cardinals 20.
San Diego (+2.5) at BUFFALO (45.5): I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Bills are for real. I'd still stay away from this game, though. Bills 24, Chargers 20.
Dallas (-1) at ST. LOUIS (44.5): Does Austin Davis = Kurt Warner? Maybe, but nothing else on the roster equals Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce or Torry Holt, let alone all three. Still, the Cowboys will find a way to get St. Louis over .500. Rams 26, Cowboys 19.
Washington (+6.5) at PHILADELPHIA (50.5): Is Chip Kelly getting too cute for his own good? We won't find out today, even with the right quarterback starting for the Racists. Eagles 27, Redskins 23.
Houston (-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (41.5): There's a positive side to Giants owner John Mara being involved in this "internal investigation" being run by the NFL -- maybe it'll keep from actually seeing his own team and wanting to jump out a window. Texans 24, Giants 20.
Minnesota (+10) at NEW ORLEANS (49.5): I'll guarantee you -- I'm a hell of a lot more likely to stay in a Radisson now. Saints 34, Vikings 21.
Tennessee (+7) at CINCINNATI (43): Sports Illustrated has Cincy has the top team in the NFL. They're right. Bengals 26, Titans 13.
Green Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT (53):  I have no clear read on this game ... which is obviously no different than any other game any other week. Lions 27, Packers 24.
Baltimore (-1.5) at CLEVELAND (41.5): If you've stayed a Ravens fan thus far, maybe you should go read this ESPN Between The Lines article about what the Ravens knew when and what they did with that information. Sickening. Browns 23, Ravens 20.

Lock of the Week: Carolina
Trifecta: Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050

Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Football Hoser's NFL Picks, Week 3, 2014 -- Thursday Edition

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at ATLANTA (47): What's the bigger mystery in this game? Is it:
A) What the hell happened to the Falcons offense last week? Were they off picnicking with Detroit's offense? Maybe they had the runs from too many SkyLine three-ways?
or
B) What the hell has happened to Doug Martin? Bobby Rainey looks like friggin' Jim Brown behind this line, and even when he wasn't hurt, Martin was running in molasses.
In any case, I suspect the Falcons are going to explode here, Bobby Rainey be damned (and dragging Josh McCown along behind him).

Falcons 29, Buccaneers 17.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The Football Hoser's Week Two 2014 Results

Oof.

After an acceptable first week (anything .500 or above in Week One is fine by me), I was betting on some teams regressing to their norms. They didn't.

We finished 7-9 against the spread and a miserable 6-10 straight up. Seriously, it's hard to be that bad picking just winners. Yay, Hoser!

The Bills looked awfully .. well, the word is "solid." They have good lines, a strong running game and a QB in E.J. Manuel who seems to understand he doesn't need to be the hero, just a manager. I don't have quite as much faith in Cleveland, but again, fundamentally the Browns are sound.

On the flipside, does New Orleans actually practice defense, or do they all sit on the sidelines and watch Drew Brees play catch with Jimmy Graham? Defensive coordinator (and I use that term extremely loosely) Rob Ryan had words on the sideline with head coach Sean Peyton, but those words had to be, "Yes, we suck. Yes, I'm aware of it. No, I don't expect to be employed here much longer."

See you Thursday with the Thursday night game!

2014 Week Two

ATS: 7-9
SU: 6-10
Total $: -$690

2014 Season Totals

ATS: 15-15-2
SU: 15-17
Total $: -$1,050